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Title: The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off in Bangladesh: Empirical Insights for Accelerating Progress towards Zero Poverty (SDG 1)

Abstract: This study empirically investigates the inflation-unemployment trade-off in Bangladesh and assesses its implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG 1) of zero poverty. High inflation erodes the real income of the poor, while unemployment directly limits earning capabilities, making the interplay between these variables a central determinant of poverty reduction. Using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024, we employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to test for the existence and stability of a long-run relationship. Our findings confirm a significant short-run trade-off but reveal that this relationship is unstable and weakens in the long run, suggesting that other structural factors dominate. The results indicate that unanticipated inflationary shocks disproportionately harm the poor, and persistent unemployment remains a formidable barrier to inclusive growth. The study concludes that a singular focus on either price stability or employment generation is insufficient for attaining SDG 1. Instead, Bangladesh requires an integrated policy framework that combines prudent monetary policy to control the inflation rate with targeted fiscal measures, investments in human capital, and productive sector diversification to generate new employment opportunities. This holistic approach is essential to effectively manage the trade-off and accelerate progress towards eliminating poverty.

By Shuvongkor Kumar Datta, S.K.S. Yadav, Jubair Ansary, Ariful Islam
In Volume: 14,Issue: 2
Title: Components of the Money Supply Process in Bangladesh: An Analysis

Abstract: This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the components and effectiveness of the money supply process in Bangladesh, with a particular focus on its underlying determinants, trends, and policy implications. The primary objective is to evaluate whether the existing money supply mechanism, as implemented by the Bangladesh Bank, is effective in meeting the country’s macroeconomic objectives of price stability, economic growth, and financial stability. The research adopts a mixed-method approach, integrating both descriptive and econometric analyses. Descriptive statistics and trend analysis are used to examine the historical patterns of monetary aggregates namely the monetary base (H), money multiplier (m), narrow money (M1), and broad money (M2) over the past two decades. The results reveal that the money supply process in Bangladesh exhibits both short-run volatility and long-run stability, with the monetary base and money multiplier jointly influencing the expansion of M2. Co-integration tests confirm the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among monetary aggregates, while ECM results suggest a moderate speed of adjustment toward equilibrium following shocks. However, structural break analysis indicates that global financial crises, domestic policy shifts, and recent pandemic-related disruptions have caused significant short-term deviations. The findings highlight that although the Bangladesh Bank’s monetary policy framework has been largely effective in steering the long-run trajectory of the money supply, challenges remain in managing short-run fluctuations and in aligning monetary expansion with real economic growth. The study concludes with policy recommendations aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of the money supply process, including improving forecasting models, strengthening monetary transmission mechanisms, and enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.

By Sabiha Akter
In Volume: 14,Issue: 2
Title: Redefining Trade Relations: The Effect of Atmanirbhar Bharat on India’s Imports and Exports with China

Abstract: This research explores the impact of India's Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) policy on its trade relations with China, emphasising their role in global supply chains. It analyses changes in trade patterns, import dependency, export results, and sectoral shifts since the policy's 2020 implementation. By combining quantitative data with qualitative evaluations, the study reveals that the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative has introduced strategic measures for import substitution, supply chain diversification, and domestic industry support, focusing on enhancing local manufacturing, technological innovation, and entrepreneurship. The study highlights India's structural trade imbalances with China, driven by its significant demand for intermediate goods and capital equipment crucial for manufacturing. This dependence poses challenges to India's self-reliance and complicates trade relations in a globalised economy. The paper offers policy recommendations to enhance trade resilience and competitiveness against Chinese imports, including investing in infrastructure, promoting research and development, and forming strategic international partnerships to mitigate trade imbalances and support sustainable growth.

By Arvind Kumar Yadav, Nitin Kumar
In Volume: 14,Issue: 2
Title: Comparative Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Non-Performing Assets: A Case Study of SBI and ICICI Bank in India

Abstract: This study examines the differential approach to risk management strategies concerning Non-Performing Assets (NPA) within India's two foremost banks – the Indian Public Sector Bank, State Bank of India (SBI) and the Indian Private Sector Bank, ICICI Bank. While comparing the two banks, using a mixed-method approach, the research combines quantitative analysis of trends in financial indicators (Gross and Net NPA ratios, Provision Coverage Ratio and Return on Assets) and a qualitative analysis of credit appraisal and monitoring and recovery frameworks. Data from 2010-2025 were taken from RBI publications, annual reports and credible academic studies, so there was authenticity and reliability of data. Findings show that SBI's recovery centered reforms such as better provisioning (PCR increase from 70.88% to 75%), restructuring under Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and improved post-sanction monitoring have led to a reduction in Gross NPAs by 47% and significant improvement in profitability (ROA increased from 0.48% to 1.1%). On the other hand , ICICI Bank's proactive and technology-driven risk model, with AI-driven early warning systems, digitised credit scoring and stringent underwriting, regularly maintained low NPAs (down from 3.05% to 1.67%) and enhanced profitability (ROA doubling to 2.0%). Correlation study reports we see that there is a very strong inverse relationship between NPAs, provisioning, Net NPA ratio and profitability (r approx –0.9) which means as NPAs and provisioning go up Net NPA ratio and profitability goes down. This is proof that what we put in place for credit assessment, early identification and recovery does in fact directly improve banks’ performance. We found out that what made SBI successful was its recovery and restructurizing which made ICICI’s success was in prevention and technology based monitoring. Also brought to light is the fact that what is key in the Indian banking system is the integration between AI, data analysis and good governance which banks use in risk management and in the end in the maintenance of asset quality in a sustainable way.

By Achintya Kumar Gupta, Narendra Pal Singh
In Volume: 14,Issue: 2
Title: The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off in Bangladesh: Empirical Insights for Accelerating Progress towards Zero Poverty (SDG 1)

Abstract: This study empirically investigates the inflation-unemployment trade-off in Bangladesh and assesses its implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG 1) of zero poverty. High inflation erodes the real income of the poor, while unemployment directly limits earning capabilities, making the interplay between these variables a central determinant of poverty reduction. Using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024, we employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to test for the existence and stability of a long-run relationship. Our findings confirm a significant short-run trade-off but reveal that this relationship is unstable and weakens in the long run, suggesting that other structural factors dominate. The results indicate that unanticipated inflationary shocks disproportionately harm the poor, and persistent unemployment remains a formidable barrier to inclusive growth. The study concludes that a singular focus on either price stability or employment generation is insufficient for attaining SDG 1. Instead, Bangladesh requires an integrated policy framework that combines prudent monetary policy to control the inflation rate with targeted fiscal measures, investments in human capital, and productive sector diversification to generate new employment opportunities. This holistic approach is essential to effectively manage the trade-off and accelerate progress towards eliminating poverty.

By Shuvongkor Kumar Datta, S.K.S. Yadav, Jubair Ansary, Ariful Islam
In Volume: 14,Issue: 2
Title: Minimizing the Impact of U.S. Tariffs on India’s Economic Growth: Strategic Responses and Policy Recommendations

Abstract: Due to imports of goods and particularly textiles, gems, seafood, and electronics, the United States presents tariff levels that are very high to Indian exports and this presents a great challenge to Indian trade balance and GDP. This paper will examine the economic effects of these tariffs, examine the bilateral trade pattern between India and the U.S., and provide an internal policy action to alleviate the effect. It also analyses strategic potential of the India UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as hedge against U.S trade headwinds. By quantitatively supported thought and sectoral knowledge, the paper draws a plan on how India can be resilient in exports and its economy.

By Nakshatra Gupta
In Volume: 14,Issue: 2

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